Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned 'Sham' Election.

Polling materials in Myanmar
The country's junta is holding a phased election over the next month.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with major political parties dissolved, numerous figures jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the election under a new law which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film promoting the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive operational hurdle for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".

John Sampson
John Sampson

A seasoned betting analyst with over a decade of experience in online gaming and sports wagering.