A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
